Survivorship bias

Something to think about whenever you hear a successful actor, filmmaker, whatever, talking about never give up and always follow your dreams, etc. I always thought that if a panel was going to have someone talking about how their hard work led to success, they should also be required to have 3 other panelists who worked equally hard and were still laboring in obscurity and never had the big day come (the seen vs. unseen).

There’s another way, where you find a way to be OK with your art/practice/whatever even if it doesn’t make you a lot of money. You can have a portfolio that leaves you exposed to high-upside payoffs without catastrophic downside (e.g. waiting tables at 60).

Survivorship bias.

 

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